with Oscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor — Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 14, Issue 1. This paper studies the co-evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries since 1870. We find that in advanced economies financial stability risks have come from private sector credit booms and not from the expansion […]
with Oscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor —Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 45(s2), pp. 3-28 Using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: relative to typical recessions, financial crisis recessions are costlier, and more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by […]
German Economic Review, Vol. 15, Issue 1, pp. 191–207. In this study, I draw on recent comparative studies of the macroeconomic history of advanced economies since 1870. I show that while both public and private debts have increased markedly, private, not public debts have climbed to historically unprecedented levels. Outside war times, financial crises have […]
European Economic Review, Vol. 19, Issue 6, pp. 881-897. The costs of wars have been the main driver of public debt in the Western World during the modern era. The late twentieth century stands out as a period that saw a pronounced increase of government debt to GDP ratios in peacetime. This paper assesses the […]
with Alan Taylor and Oscar Jorda — American Economic Review, Vol. 102, Issue 2, pp. 1029-61. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870-2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the […]